Ömer Karadeniz, Chairman of the Federation of Plastic Industrialists, stated that 2024 will be remembered as a quite difficult year both globally and for Turkey from an economic perspective. He noted that we will enter a new year with high inflation, slow growth, and a current account deficit, saying, “2025 will not be an easy year. We must act with the awareness that changing and intensifying global competition awaits us.”
As the economic world prepares for a new year, economic trends are under scrutiny. Business professionals are curious about the economic forecasts for 2025, while paying close attention to the future of the global economy. For companies, investors, and entrepreneurs competing on a global scale, understanding the future of the world economy is of vital importance. Undoubtedly, 2025 stands out as an intriguing year in this regard.
Ömer Karadeniz, Chairman of the Federation of Plastic Industrialists (PLASFED), stated that developments in the global economy will be a decisive factor for the national economy. He explained that the risks and uncertainties regarding the global economy will remain significantly high in the new year, just as they were in 2024, saying, “Throughout 2024, while the world faced economic and geopolitical uncertainties, undoubtedly, our country also bore the brunt of this process.”
He indicated that we will enter a new year characterized by high inflation, slow growth, and a current account deficit, expressing that 2025 will not be an easy year. Emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of inflation rates in the first few months of the new year, Karadeniz stated, “Depending on the inflation figures, we may see interest rate cuts in the first quarter of 2025. Looking at the indicators, we can say that the first six months of the year will be challenging. The latter half of the year will take shape depending on the decrease in inflation and the return of interest rates.”
Karadeniz explained that the central banks' tightened monetary policies to combat high inflation globally have led to rising interest rates and currency fluctuations, paving the way for a global recession. He remarked that 2024 has passed as a very challenging year both globally and for Turkey in terms of economic expectations. Chairman Karadeniz stated that we are preparing to enter a tough year in terms of growth perspective, emphasizing, “We must act with the awareness that changing and intensifying global competition awaits us.”
There is a bloodletting in the industry
Karadeniz expressed that due to rising interest rates, low exchange rates, and the contracting external market, there is a bloodletting in the industry due to the increasing impacts of these factors, stating that the first six months of the new year will be difficult for industrialists. He explained that the industrial production data announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute for October is an indication that the economy will continue to shrink in the last quarter. He elaborated on the main reasons for the bleeding in the industry as follows:
“High interest rates and overall monetary tightening have affected the producer sectors more than the consumption side of the economy. Our SMEs, which constitute 90% of the Turkish industry, are experiencing serious financial issues along with production, supply, and sales problems. The policy rate has climbed to around 50%, which due to its attractiveness has diverted resources from production to interest gains. Our exports have lost competitiveness in the global market because of the low exchange rate.”
The expectation for normalization in the economy is postponed to the second half
PLASFED President, the umbrella organization, indicated that the relatively positive developments expected in the global economy will create a relatively favorable environment for the implementation of policies prioritizing macroeconomic stability and structural reforms in the Turkish economy. Karadeniz pointed out that both the world and Turkey should enter a normalization process in the second half of 2025, stating that the most important condition for this is the reduction of inflation and the establishment of economic stability. He explained that while a continued contraction in industrial production is evident, indicators like the PMI have shown a noticeable slowdown compared to previous months. He noted that the increase in export volume observed towards the end of 2024 might contribute to the normalization that could be seen in the second half of the year.
Translated by Artificial Intelligence
